Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,158,040$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(6.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,211,029.4}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,211,029.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $67,682$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72,232.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(72,232.7\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $910,206$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $60,504$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,360.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(68,360.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,795$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(88.4 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,684.4}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,684.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,788$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,090$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(457 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,112.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(8,112.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $197$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(11 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{223.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(223.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,252$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,954$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(498 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,057.6}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,057.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $333$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(37.2 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{331.9}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 26.2)}}\) (asimptote \(331.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,015$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,471$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(610 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,371.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 48.1)}}\) (asimptote \(52,371.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,154$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(84.2 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,147.7}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,147.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,870$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,055$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(85.6 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,809.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 57.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,809.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $82$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(9.34 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(112.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $855$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,649$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(159 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,757.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,757.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $67$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(5.88 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(82.9\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $755$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $469$ on 2020-05-03
Best fit exponential: \(9.14 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{807.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(807.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-03
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $422$ on 2020-05-03
